Week 14 of the NFL season includes the final slate of byes, with six (!) teams out of action this week. That limits the volume of opportunities on the board, but the stretch run of the campaign continues. In short, Week 13 was not fantastic in this space, with the Jets out-gaining the Vikings by nearly 200 yards, only to fall just short, and the Ravens not quite getting there with Lamar Jackson on the shelf.
That downturn had a negative impact on the season-long progress and, before flipping to five picks for Week 14, let’s take stock.
- Week 13: 1-4
- 2022 Season: 32-32-1
Come get these winners.
Houston Texans (+17.5) over Dallas Cowboys
This is so gross, but I have to do it. Houston is going to start Davis Mills, who appears to be an upgrade on Kyle Allen, and this is an enormous number. The Texans are horrifying, but this should probably be a couple points lower. Houston has only one loss by 18 or more points this year. Hold your nose.
Detroit Lions (-1.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has the worst DVOA of any 10-2 team in NFL history. Absolutely no one believes the Vikings are actually a 10-2 team in terms of quality, but this is still a wild line, at least in the minds of some. Detroit is favored? Against a 10-2 team? Yep, lay it.
TEASER: Baltimore Ravens (+8) over Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals (+8) over New England Patriots
There are other legs I’d consider, but these are my favorites of the week. Yes, Baltimore let us down a week ago, and Tyler Huntley is the quarterback. I still love the Ravens getting eight with a game where the total is in the 30’s. Arizona getting eight at home against the Patriots is also quite juicy, and as always, we’re going through key numbers.
Carolina Panthers (+4) over Seattle Seahawks
With all due respect to Geno Smith, I’m a seller on Seattle at this number. The Seahawks have significant running back injuries, a porous defense, and an opponent that I think is undervalued in the market. Carolina hasn’t exactly been thrilling to watch this season, but they’ve played better in recent weeks and can keep this tight.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) over Miami Dolphins
I’m breaking a rule by taking the Chargers at home, but snagging the 3.5 is appetizing. Los Angeles may have to get us in the backdoor to make it happen, but Miami has injury questions at key spots (left tackle, wide receiver), and it’s a buy-low on the Chargers after three losses in the last four games.
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